tokoroten When Polis is used for company operation, if some virtual currency is used for Polis, as written in Nishio’s scrapbox. When Polis is used for company operation, as described in Nishio’s scrapbox, I’m wondering what the difference is between prediction market and Polis.

So, after fishing through Mr. Nishio’s scrapbox, I was surprised that he didn’t dig into the prediction market.

nishio The prediction market is a mechanism that encourages a large number of people to submit correct predictions to the best of their ability by setting incentives that reward them for correct predictions. The original story about Polis involving voice tokens is Quadratic Voting, which is a mechanism that allows people to correctly express how much they feel the object of their vote is worth.

nishio For people to correctly express their confidence in a prediction market, they need to lose money when they are wrong. In order to get people to participate in a bet where they lose money when they are wrong, it is necessary to produce a performance that makes them feel that they will make money if they participate. I suspect that in many cases, the cost of this presentation exceeds the price that users who want to obtain predictions are willing to pay.

nishio As for QV and others, the incentive comes from the fact that “public decisions are made based on voting results”. Polis is just a tool, and when you don’t use it for public decision making, you are actually in a situation where the biggest incentive is missing.

nishio So I’m creating an incentive by writing “Vote and you’ll know where you stand” and “Vote for all of them and you can post your own opinion”. When you can post, it acts as a “microblog where 100 people will respond to your opinion”.

@tokoroten: oh, so the forecasting market went out of business because having “[Objective viewpoints Because it’s impossible. “You can state “preferences” but “How much do other people like it? How many do they dislike? How many of them?” And, “Will the project be completed by xx/xx date?” needs to be objective.


This page is auto-translated from /nishio/Polisと予測市場 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.