It is useful to recognize variables as “probability distributions” that can take on multiple values, rather than a single value. We often observe errors in judgment due to the failure to do so.
- Humans tend to overlook higher moments
- Forget about variance and think only in terms of averages. - 50% chance of achievement even if achieved on average. - Not a natural occurrence of disparity.
- Forgetting moments of higher order than variance. - mean value, mode, and median do not necessarily match
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