The Value of “Postponement” in Bus Lines - The Delusions of Strangers
from Blind spot card with no picture yet option value
There is value in being able to choose. For example, there is a bet that has a 1/3 chance of being +1 and a 2/3 chance of being -1. This bet by itself has a negative expected value, so it is better not to do it. However, if you “do it twice and you can choose whichever you like,” you should do it because there is a 5/9 chance of +1 and a 4/9 chance of -1. This is the value of being able to choose.
See also: real options, Trade-off between exploration and exploitation.
BELOW_IS_AI_GENERATED
オプションバリュー
2023-09-05 01:13
Summary of notes
. This explains the “option value”, which is the value of the choice itself. For example, if there is a bet that has a 1/3 chance of being +1 and a 2/3 chance of being -1, you should not do this bet by itself because the expected value is negative. However, if you are allowed to “do it twice and choose whichever you like,” you should do it because there is a 5/9 chance that you will get +1 and a 4/9 chance that you will get -1. This is the value of being able to choose.
Relation to Fragment
. The fragment “Movement increases the range of observation” is related to the note. While the note explains the value of having options, this fragment explains the importance of expanding the range of observation in order to increase options. In other words, the relevance is that increasing the range of observation increases the number of options, which in turn increases the option value.
deep thinking
The value gained by having more options, or option value, can be further increased by expanding the range of observation. However, in order to expand the range of observation, it is necessary to change one’s own behavior and thinking. Therefore, from the perspective of self-growth and self-development, it is important to broaden the scope of observation.
summary of thoughts and title
. Maximize option value by extending the range of observation.”
extra info
TITLES: ["Still no picture blind spot card"], "Movement increases range of observation", "Nada 2021 question", "Stop thinking of others as irrational", "Point, variance and distribution shape", "Risk taking or not taking is a false choice"]
generated: 2023-09-05 01:13
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