When we take various actions, they sometimes bring about “good results that we did not initially expect to obtain” (Unexpected Success). People who have experienced this unexpected success will think that something good may come of it, and they will take action even if what they gain is unclear. Those who have not experienced it consider cost-effectiveness based only on predictable outcomes. Since they are more reluctant to estimate effectiveness, they are more likely to choose not to act.
relevance - planned contingency - Positive bias toward the unknown
- If the estimate of effectiveness increases gradually, the former will act before the latter. - first-mover advantage - early adopter
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