- Science tries to gain [Universal Knowledge
- Therefore, we tend to try to collect enough [Number of samples
- There is a 95% probability that this hypothesis is correct!”
- In business, it doesn’t matter whether it’s 96% or 94%.
- Even if the hypothesis has a 10% chance of being correct.
- If the resulting Profit Expectations exceed the cost, then “Great value bets.”
- Whether a bet is profitable or not and how much you will lose if you are unlucky (Loss Limitation) are important in business.
- Spending time and money on data collection in an attempt to increase the probability that a hypothesis is correct to 95% or more is basically a bad strategy.
- It is a mistake to confuse Business Decisions with the procedures for recognizing universal knowledge in science.
- Decisions
The approach of taking the null hypothesis in the first place, calculating the p-value and making a GO decision if it’s smaller than 0.05, has been criticized quite a bit. see Critique of p-value
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