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Original title Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritcracy
- Success and luck: the myth of fortune and [meritocracy
- The translator translates it as “the superstition of unexpected luck and the myth of competence.”
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In a team of three, with a randomly selected leader, if four cookies are distributed, the leader eats the fourth cookie. p. 11
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One-Man Market p.33
- A one-winner society has arrived.
- The difference in revenue between first and second place is not proportional to the difference in performance between first and second place.
- Even if the ratio of ability to luck is constant, the more competition there is, the greater the contribution of luck to the ranking.
- Because the gap based on merit will narrow.
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‘Don’t think luck is important’ can help your efforts.
- When you face reality, you realize that the odds of success are smaller than you thought, and you stop trying.
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U.S. Wedding Costs More Than Tripled in 1980, But Not Happier p. 40
- Rather, the divorce rate for couples who spent more than 5,000 and $10,000.
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Hindsight bias p.50
- Lazarsfeld.
- When informed of the false study that “soldiers from the countryside were better acclimated to military life,” they agree.
- Duncan Watts
- The Mona Lisa became famous after a theft in 1911.
- Lazarsfeld.
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Music Lab p.61
- A lot depends on the reputation of those who downloaded music early onHelloEffect
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Malcolm Gladwell, “Genius! The Laws of Successful People.”
- Gates was at a city middle school that had access to time-sharing terminals.
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Many successful athletes January-March birthdays. p. 70
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Whether authors are alphabetical or not affects the probability that a person with a younger last name will receive lifetime tenure. p.71
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Luck in Chapter 3 one-size-fits-all marketWTA
- Pianos used to have manufacturers in many areas because transportation costs were high, but as transportation costs came down, they became more concentrated.
- The slight difference caused by Betamax only being able to record for one hour was widened by the network effect.
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Networking of society accelerates Winner Take All by a small margin.
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Positive feedback has increased the number of cases where a small difference due to luck is magnified.
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The lucky one among the group with the best ability wins and takes it all.
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The second half was about progressive sales tax. Interesting, but not what I was going for.
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Winner Take All comes from the development of networks
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There is not a huge difference in ability between the top players, but the difference is due to luck and total WTA
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ability to succeed by luck with the right to challenge
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