fladdict We talked about how future prediction can be done by considering “apple tree” as a model… “At any given moment, which apple will fall from the tree?” is unpredictable. but “By winter, most of the apples will be falling off the tree” is predictable. Discard the former forecasting problem and focus on the latter. fladdict People who miss a lot of predictions or are unevenly distributed focus on the former prediction problem. fladdict The former is expensive, has a low strike rate, cannot be deployed laterally, and is easily wasted. Life is advantageous enough if you just stick firmly to the latter question.
foretelling the future. apple trees apple tree
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