tokoroten: I got a comment on this diagram chasm figure doesnât assume a uniform population distribution? demographic bonus period is dominated by young people, often just before the chasm, hence new businesses flourish PERIOD OF POPULATION OVERESTIMATION is older, more behind the chasm, hence more conservative firms, more difficult for new business
- Related:. - population pyramid - New business and company signage
nishio: The original chasm is merely a normal distribution sliced by standard deviation to determine population ratios, so the horizontal axis is meaningless, but if you assign a concept like ânew innovation If you assign a concept like âhiring trendsâ, then of course that trend and age donât seem to be independent.
nishio: not a simple composition of age only, but âpeople who saw it for the first timeâ appreciate it more highly than it really is and get excited, and âpeople who have seen something similar in the pastâ are subsequently disillusioned The image of stepping on the brake after remembering the period - Disillusionment period of [hype cycle
And when one is caught up in Pessimistic Misconceptions, one cannot get out of it because it inhibits one from âtrying,â and over time people move from optimism to pessimism. If a certain balance is optimal, then a society that has increased its life expectancy from that point is overly pessimistic. Is this what you meant to say?
tokoroten: ⊠that doesnât have to be forcibly explained by hype cycles, the human capacity to learn Youâre assuming too much that the human capacity to learn doesnât change throughout life. Itâs usually Decreased curiosity due to aging, and a diminished ability to learn is a sufficient explanation, Conversely, at younger ages, in addition to the reverse of the above, idiosyncratic consumption activities are associated with sex appeal
nishio: It is true that as we age we lose the ability to learn new things, but I think that in addition, âDisregard for the newâ is causing the behavior of ânot devoting resources to learning it,â and that has a significant impact. I think that the âdisregard for the newâ is causing the behavior of ânot devoting resources to learning itâ, and the effect of that may be significant. And what causes this âdisregardâ and âpessimismâ and âlearned helplessnessâ?
tokoroten: I think I can roughly explain it in terms of sex appeal Because in human society âAdaptability to new thingsâ appears to be an indicator of sexual excellence, As the need to appeal for sex disappears, the ability to learn is reduced
nishio: hmmm. I think that hypothesis is a bit overstated when you consider, for example, whether people who enthusiastically tinkered with computers in the early days of computers thought that it would lead to sexual appeal to the opposite sex, or whether it did in fact lead to sexual appeal. Itâs an observable fact that there are small wealthy first generation men who study youth culture to attract the attention of young women.
hatashinya: I could not connect at all!
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