As the scarcity of young people increases, the value of old people faces possible replacement by AI
- Thought Triggers
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In the 1970s, when the current late-stage elderly were in their 20s, the national social security contribution rate was about 5%, whereas in 2023 it will be 18.7%.
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In other words, today’s old people only had to pay about a quarter of what we did when they were working…
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In 1970, the average life expectancy was 69.84 years… Today, the average life expectancy is 87.57 years for women and 81.05 years for men, extending the period of time that young people have to bear the burden of living longer.
- https://twitter.com/phd_pharmd_im/status/1727593012086378860?s=46&t=gkSZtjGEtUZPO0JCzBxCBw
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- In times when survival was once difficult, the surviving elderly were the better part of a few.
- weeding pressure has increased the quality of survivors.
- This gave rise to a Confucianist norm in East Asia that “elders have value and should be respected.
- When there is an overabundance of old people and a scarcity of young people, there will be a scarcity of young people.
- On the other hand, the composition itself remains the same: “Old people have a lot of life experience and young people don’t have much.
- What happens if we do that?
- Young people can run faster if they are alone. Older people are slower, but can go farther.
- Older people who were deemed worthy of being taken are taken.
- Older people who don’t will be left behind.
- Knowledge can be replicated, so there’s no need to take a lot of old people.
- Can we have at least one person on the team?
- Then the number of seats for the “old people taken” will be much smaller than the total number of old people, and a game of chairs will occur.
- In the near future, there will be a war between old people competing for scarce resources.
- It could be that “an AI that learns from the life experiences of old people will suffice” without taking the humans themselves in the first place.
- One person can only have a few decades of experience, so if there is an AI that has the experience of multiple people, it can become “I don’t need an old human.
- I think it’s much more likely that “the value of the elderly, who were thought to be valuable simply by living longer,” will be spoiled than that “AI will take away jobs.
- You will simply be treated as someone who can only operate with half the horsepower of a young person.
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