AI's Impact on Labor Market May Not Be Mitigated by UBI in Japan
Feb 27, 20246 min read
Discussion on reading [A Global Economic History of Technology
Summary
To mitigate the effects of modern technological innovation, especially AI, Sam Altman aims to introduce a universal basic income (UBI) through Worldcoin.
UBI is seen as one way to mitigate the temporary labor market impact of technological innovation, but it is unlikely to reach a satisfactory level in Japan, where wage levels are high.
In Japan, in addition to UBI, a multifaceted approach is required to seek sustainable economic growth and social justice, including strengthening education and retraining.
Discussion
- Sam Altman is getting ready for [[UBI]] with [[Worldcoin]], seeing the story that before the industrial revolution, landowners were afraid of rioting due to [[labor displacement technology]], the industrial revolution actually increased anger against machines, and after a time delay, productivity gains due to machines increased wages and workers stopped resisting. I now understand in more detail why.
- AI will bomb productivity and workers will be terrible for a time because it is labor displacement, so they will explode in frustration and say, "Kill the AI! Kill Sam Altman!" We can spread the UBI around and move "[[higher wages]]" forward to prevent this from happening.
- If the trade-off with destruction by riots occurs, the AI capitalist side will move to suppress the riots by borrowing future profits in advance, because all but the workers understand that productivity will increase in the long run if not destroyed.
- I found out that Worldcoin is scheduled to be released in 15 years, so I thought Sam Altman's projection was that this 15 year period was the period "[[if you don't UBI, the world will break]]."
- [[A Global Economic History of Technology]] details the economic and social impact of technological innovation during the Industrial Revolution. It examines the impact of technological progress on the labor market before and after the Industrial Revolution, particularly how mechanization caused worker resistance, and how subsequent economic development improved workers' living standards and reduced resistance. This historical case study parallels the impact of modern technological progress, particularly AI, on the labor market and provides important insights into the balance between the short-term effects of technological unemployment and the long-term benefits of economic growth.
- Sam Altman's goal of achieving UBI (Universal Basic Income) through the Worldcoin project can be considered as one solution to mitigate the impact of AI and automation on the labor market and to distribute the benefits from technological progress in a more equitable manner. As history has shown, productivity gains from technological innovation ultimately benefit society as a whole, but how to deal with economic and social imbalances during this transitional period is a key issue. The UBI is proposed as a means to mitigate imbalances during this transitional period and to smooth the transition to long-term economic growth.
- I don't think it will ever reach a satisfactory level in Japan, where the global [[wage level]] is high, as it is a common UBI in the world. What kind of future is possible in such a Japan?
- Technological progress and [[the restructuring of the social security system]] will be key to future prospects in Japan. In order to widely distribute the benefits of productivity gains from technological progress, a multifaceted approach will be needed, not only through UBI, but also through education and [[retraining programs]], flexibility in the labor market, and the creation of new employment opportunities. Particularly in countries with high wage levels such as Japan, society as a whole must rethink the changes brought about by technology and seek new policies and systems to achieve sustainable economic growth and social equity. This process could be driven by cooperation among government, business, and civil society in a movement toward a more inclusive and equitable society.
Wages in Japan are relatively low in the world: according to 2020 data, the average wage in Japan is about $39,711, which is about 55.5% of the average wage in the U.S.(3). This low level places Japan in the lowest group of OECD countries(2). It has also been noted that wages in Japan have been stagnant, with data showing that they have increased by only about 6% over the past 30 years.
Average wage in OECD countries In the UBI context for everyone in the world, it’s expensive. And by “cheap in the OECD” I mean expensive in the eyes of the world to begin with, since the OECD is all developed countries.
Well, in that sense, “developed countries” might be more appropriate than “Japan”. In those countries, due to high wage levels, the lead time for UBI to function is long.
Currently Worldcoin doesn’t have price adjustments, etc., but after this discussion I feel that it would be bad if they didn’t adjust for the high cost of food and other things.
On the other hand, they also said “Worldcoin is a governance token,” and I thought that Worldcoin could be used as a voting right for decision-making on the amount of distribution per country.
I get about 60,000 yen from Wolrdcoin in a few months, and I can’t live on that level of salary in Japan, but in Pakistan, where the average annual salary is 250,000 yen, I’m functioning as a UBI.
That wage gap is also the reason why impoverished zombies from Pakistan get involved in Japanese language tweets.
This page is auto-translated from /nishio/AIによる労働市場への影響が日本ではUBIで緩和できない可能性 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.
Wages in Japan are relatively low in the world: according to 2020 data, the average wage in Japan is about $39,711, which is about 55.5% of the average wage in the U.S.(3). This low level places Japan in the lowest group of OECD countries(2). It has also been noted that wages in Japan have been stagnant, with data showing that they have increased by only about 6% over the past 30 years.
In the UBI context for everyone in the world, it’s expensive. And by “cheap in the OECD” I mean expensive in the eyes of the world to begin with, since the OECD is all developed countries.
