Which is the essential number.

I saw the statement, “Which is the essential number?”

Numbers are clues to understanding the world, and collecting a lot of them helps us understand it better. Trying to “pick a side” is an act that leads away from understanding.

concrete example

• The question of which is more essential, the “number of infected” or the “number of severely ill or dead” in COVID19.

  • There is also another “basic reproduction number” and the topic of the basic reproduction number of Delta stock is high around 2
  • The overall basic reproduction number continues to rise at about 1.2, and if this is due to “an increasing percentage of delta shares” it will rise to about 2 if left alone
  • While the number of reproductions exceeds 1, the “number of infected” increases exponentially, and if the percentage of deaths among the infected is constant, the “number of deaths” increases as well.
  • In other words, there are a number of values that are interdependent, and there is a time delay before one value affects another.
  • If we draw an arrow of influence, “number of deaths” is downstream, so it changes late, and “number of reproductions” is upstream, so it changes early, so it is useful to focus on upstream indicators when predicting the future.

• I collected this as an example of human bug, but I don’t feel like giving feedback to the speaker on this matter.

• No arguments worth making.

relevance - systems thinking

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