2024-10-29
- The opinion vectors of each politician were extracted from the data of the 2022 House of Councillors election by Joint research by Taniguchi Laboratory, University of Tokyo and Asahi Shimbun and visualized by a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method UMAP ( 592 respondents, 42 questions) Clusters were specified by human range selection, opinions characterizing the cluster were extracted by Fisherâs exact probability test, and a commentary for the cluster was generated by ChatGPT No information on political party affiliation was used for dimensionality reduction or for generating explanations for the clusters, but only for creating scatter plots to be shown to humans. The purpose was to observe the cohesiveness of individual politiciansâ opinions, not their cohesiveness as a political party. The AI cluster commentary is created at the end of the process, but in this report it is written first for human clarity
overall view
Cluster name by AI
- C0: Peace-oriented and opposed to base relocation
- C1: Fiscal conservatism and adherence to the current system
- C2: Oppose relocation of bases, peace-oriented, social security-oriented
- C3 Nuclear maintenance and prudent reformers
- C4: Maintain consumption tax, emphasize individual rights, expand suffrage
- C5: Maintain tax rates, allow nuclear power plants, and suppress suffrage
- C6: Dialogue-oriented and cautious about limiting private rights
- C7: Those who maintain nuclear power plants and value the status quo
- C8: Reform Restraint and Economic Liberalism
- C9: Higher education self-funded/traditional maintenance group
- C10: Fiscal conservatism and emphasis on traditional values
Explanation of each cluster
C0: Peace-oriented, opponents of base relocation
Q4_7 Relocation of Futenma base in Okinawa Prefecture to Henoko is unavoidable
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 2% Nay: 97 Other groups: Pro: 55% Neutral: 33% Oppose: 12 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_6 I want the Prime Minister to visit Yasukuni Shrine
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 7% Nay: 93 Other groups: Pro: 56% Neutral: 32% Oppose: 11 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_2 We should not hesitate to attack enemy bases if we expect attacks from other countries.
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 0% Nay: 99 Other groups: Pro: 60% Neutral: 22% Oppose: 19 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_20Ocean discharge of treated water from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is unavoidable
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 7% Nay: 92 Other groups: Pro: 63% Neutral: 21% Oppose: 17 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_1 Japanâs defense capability should be strengthened more
This group: Yea: 11% Neutral: 17% Nay: 73 Other groups: Pro: 84% Neutral: 10% Negative: 6% More opposition than any other cluster.
Peace-oriented, opponents of base relocation This group strongly supports a peaceful approach to defense and base issues and is opposed to the Henoko relocation of Okinawa and the strengthening of Japanâs defense forces. They are also opposed to the Prime Ministerâs visit to Yasukuni Shrine, attacks on enemy bases, and the release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean, and tend to emphasize the importance of maintaining peace and protecting the environment both at home and abroad. While maintaining the current pacifist stance, the group is cautious about conservative policies.
C1: Fiscal conservatism and adherence to the current system
.
Q4_21 The status of new coronaviruses under the Infectious Disease Act should be lowered to category 5, the same as seasonal influenza.
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 63% Neutral: 22% Oppose: 16 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_1 Japanâs defense capability should be strengthened more
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 71% Neutral: 12% Oppose: 17 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q3_5 BOJ will continue its quantitative easing policy, including JGB purchases
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 49% Neutral: 25% Oppose: 26 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_7 Government bonds are being digested stably and there is no need to worry about the budget deficit / The budget deficit is at a critical level and government bond issuance should be curbed
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 40% Neutral: 38% Oppose: 22 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_15 More organizational reform of agricultural cooperatives should be promoted, such as making Zen-Noh a stock company and separating its credit business
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 36% Neutral: 37% Oppose: 27 More opposition than any other cluster.
Fiscal conservatism and adherence to the current system This group consistently opposes a wide range of policies, such as lowering the infectious disease classification of new coronas, strengthening defense capabilities, continuing quantitative monetary easing, a sense of crisis over the budget deficit, and organizational reform of agricultural cooperatives, and strongly supports maintaining the current system. It is characterized by its cautious stance toward abrupt policy changes and institutional reforms, and its emphasis on stability and conventional policies in the areas of public finance, defense, and agriculture.
C2: Oppose relocation of bases, peace-oriented, social security-oriented
.
Q4_7 Relocation of Futenma base in Okinawa Prefecture to Henoko is unavoidable
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 3% Nay: 96 Other groups: Pro: 51% Neutral: 30% Oppose: 19 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_6 I want the Prime Minister to visit Yasukuni Shrine
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 9% Nay: 91 Other groups: Yea: 52% Neutral: 30% Nay: 18 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_2 We should not hesitate to attack enemy bases if we expect attacks from other countries.
This group: Yea: 2% Neutral: 0% Nay: 98 Other groups: Pro: 56% Neutral: 20% Disagree: 24 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_20Ocean discharge of treated water from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is unavoidable
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 10% Nay: 89 Other groups: Yea: 58% Neutral: 19% Nay: 23 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q3_2 curtail pensions and health care benefits from current levels
This group: Yea: 1% Neutral: 4% Nay: 95 Other groups: Pro: 17% Neutral: 41% Oppose: 42 More opposition than any other cluster.
Opposition to base relocation, peace-oriented, social security-oriented This group has consistently shown opposition to policies related to defense and diplomacy, such as the Henoko relocation of Okinawa, visits to Yasukuni Shrine, and attacks on enemy bases. It is also characterized by its strong opposition to the release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean and the curtailment of pension and medical benefits, as well as its emphasis on environmental protection and the maintenance of the social security system. Overall, the group emphasizes the current basis of life and takes a cautious position on aggressive defense policies and economic reforms.
C3: Nuclear maintenance and prudent reformers
.
Q5_6 Nuclear power should be phased out now / Nuclear power should remain as one of the sources of electricity in the future
This group: Yea: 17% Neutral: 28% Nay: 55 Other groups: Pro: 60% Neutral: 31% Negative: 9 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_12 The consumption tax rate should be lowered temporarily or permanently
This group: Yea: 58% Neutral: 16% Nay: 26 Other Groups: Pro: 96% Neutral: 3% Negative: 1 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_23 The age to be eligible to vote should be lowered.
This group: Yea: 47% Neutral: 30% Nay: 22 Other groups: Pro: 81% Neutral: 14% Oppose: 5 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_9 To correct the disparity in votes, âcombining districtsâ in the upper house electoral districts should be allowed / To eliminate âcombining districtsâ in the upper house electoral districts, disparity in votes within a certain range should be allowed
This group: Yea: 27% Neutral: 33% Nay: 40 Other groups: Pro: 31% Neutral: 45% Oppose: 23 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_18 Permanent foreign residents should be allowed local suffrage
This group: Yea: 17% Neutral: 18% Nay: 65 Other groups: Yea: 52% Neutral: 12% Nay: 36 More opposition than any other cluster.
Nuclear power plant maintenance and prudent reformers This group tends to favor maintaining nuclear power in the future and is cautious about abolishing it. They are also cautious about radical policy changes, being in favor of lowering the consumption tax and lowering the age of suffrage, but opposing them more than other groups. Furthermore, they are reluctant to correct the disparity in the number of votes and to grant local suffrage to permanent foreign residents, and tend to emphasize the maintenance of the current system.
C4: Maintain sales tax, emphasize individual rights, expand suffrage
Q4_12 The consumption tax rate should be lowered temporarily or permanently
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 8% Nay: 92 Other groups: Pro: 78% Neutral: 11% Oppose: 11 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_19 Itâs only natural that privacy and individual rights should be restricted in order to protect public safety.
This group: Yea: 9% Neutral: 17% Nay: 74 Other groups: Yea: 19% Neutral: 34% Nay: 47 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_22 The law should be amended to allow for strong private rights restrictions like lockdowns to prevent the spread of infectious diseases
This group: Yea: 4% Neutral: 21% Nay: 75 Other groups: Pro: 28% Neutral: 26% Oppose: 46 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_10 Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should not join the Cabinet but play their own role as the Second House / Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should also join the Cabinet and actively support the administration
This group: Yea: 4% Neutral: 29% Nay: 67 Other groups: Pro: 10% Neutral: 42% Negative: 47 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_18 Permanent foreign residents should be allowed local suffrage
This group: Yea: 96% Neutral: 4% Negative: 0% Other groups: Yea: 29% Neutral: 16% Nay: 55 More in favor than other clusters.
Maintain the consumption tax, emphasize individual rights, and expand suffrage. This group is strongly opposed to lowering consumption taxes and tends to prioritize the maintenance of fiscal stability. They are also cautious about restricting private rights for the purpose of maintaining public safety and combating infectious diseases, and have a pronounced emphasis on privacy and individual rights. On the other hand, they are overwhelmingly in favor of granting local suffrage to permanent foreign residents, and take a position in favor of respect for diversity and the participation of foreigners in society.
C5: Maintain tax rates, allow nuclear power plants, suppress suffrage groups
.
Q4_12 The consumption tax rate should be lowered temporarily or permanently
This group: Yea: 2% Neutral: 26% Nay: 72 Other groups: Pro: 82% Neutral: 9% Negative: 9 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_9 To correct the disparity in votes, âcombining districtsâ in the upper house electoral districts should be allowed / To eliminate âcombining districtsâ in the upper house electoral districts, disparity in votes within a certain range should be allowed
This group: Yea: 4% Neutral: 14% Nay: 82 Other groups: Pro: 31% Neutral: 40% Oppose: 29 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_6 Nuclear power should be phased out now / Nuclear power should remain as one of the sources of electricity in the future
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 12% Nay: 88 Other groups: Pro: 36% Neutral: 30% Disagree: 34 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_18 Permanent foreign residents should be allowed local suffrage
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 12% Nay: 88 Other groups: Pro: 36% Neutral: 15% Disagree: 49 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_10 Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should not join the Cabinet but play their own role as the Second House / Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should also join the Cabinet and actively support the administration
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 22% Nay: 78 Other groups: Yea: 11% Neutral: 44% Nay: 45 More opposition than any other cluster.
Tax rate maintenance, nuclear power plant acceptance, and suffrage suppression groups This group strongly opposes any reduction in the consumption tax rate and has indicated a preference for maintaining fiscal stability. They are also positive about maintaining nuclear power as a future source of electricity and are negative about abolishing nuclear power plants. Furthermore, many are opposed to granting local suffrage to permanent foreign residents and to correcting the disparity in the number of votes, and there is a pronounced desire to maintain the existing electoral system and the scope of rights based on nationality.
C6: Dialogue-oriented and prudent in restricting private rights
.
Q4_3 Pressure should be prioritized over dialogue with North Korea
This group: Yea: 19% Neutral: 43% Nay: 38 Other groups: Pro: 55% Neutral: 29% Oppose: 16 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_2 We should not hesitate to attack enemy bases if we expect attacks from other countries.
This group: Yea: 7% Neutral: 36% Nay: 56 Other groups: Yea: 58% Neutral: 11% Nay: 31 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_4 Pressure should be prioritized over dialogue with Russia
This group: Yea: 24% Neutral: 42% Nay: 33 Other groups: Yea: 48% Neutral: 33% Nay: 19 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_22 The law should be amended to allow for strong private rights restrictions like lockdowns to prevent the spread of infectious diseases
This group: Yea: 12% Neutral: 34% Nay: 54 Other groups: Pro: 31% Neutral: 23% Oppose: 45 More opposition than any other cluster.
Dialogue-oriented and cautious about limiting private rights This group tends to prioritize dialogue over pressure with regard to North Korea and Russia, and is reluctant to adopt an aggressive pressure policy in foreign affairs. They are also cautious about launching hostile attacks in the event of anticipated attacks from other countries, and emphasize peaceful solutions and diplomatic negotiations. Furthermore, there is much opposition to strong restrictions on private rights with regard to infectious disease control, and there is a pronounced attitude of protecting individual rights and freedoms.
C7: Those who maintain nuclear power plants and value the status quo
.
Q5_6 Nuclear power should be phased out now / Nuclear power should remain as one of the sources of electricity in the future
This group: Yea: 4% Neutral: 21% Nay: 76 Other groups: Yea: 44% Neutral: 32% Nay: 24 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_17 Foreign workers should be brought in
This group: Yea: 12% Neutral: 18% Nay: 70 Other groups: Yea: 53% Neutral: 33% Nay: 14 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_5 The three non-nuclear principles should be upheld
This group: Yea: 18% Neutral: 27% Nay: 55 Other groups: Pro: 72% Neutral: 16% Negative: 11 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_8 It is necessary to sacrifice our standard of living in order to deal with climate change / Dealing with climate change is not such an important issue that we have to sacrifice our standard of living
This group: Yea: 18% Neutral: 30% Nay: 52 Other groups: Pro: 38% Neutral: 46% Oppose: 16 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_27 A quota system should be introduced to allocate a certain percentage of parliamentary seats and candidates to women
This group: Yea: 22% Neutral: 25% Nay: 53 Other groups: Pro: 56% Neutral: 26% Oppose: 18 More opposition than any other cluster.
Those who maintain nuclear power plants and value the status quo This group is characterized by its strong opposition to the immediate elimination of nuclear power and its support for maintaining it in the future. They are also cautious about policies such as accepting foreign workers, adhering to the three non-nuclear principles, and sacrificing living standards to combat climate change, and are negative about rapid reform. Furthermore, many are opposed to the quota system for members of the Diet, and have a pronounced attitude of maintaining the status quo, respecting the current system.
C8: Reform Restraints and Economic Liberalism
Q4_10 Public works projects need to secure jobs.
This group: Yea: 5% Neutral: 10% Nay: 85 Other groups: Pro: 72% Neutral: 19% Negative: 8 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_4 Domestic industry should be protected / trade and investment should be liberalized
This group: Yea: 2% Neutral: 12% Nay: 85 Other groups: Pro: 66% Neutral: 24% Negative: 10% More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_14 The corporate tax rate paid by companies should be increased
This group: Yea: 2% Neutral: 5% Nay: 93 Other groups: Yea: 45% Neutral: 30% Nay: 25 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_18 Permanent foreign residents should be allowed local suffrage
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 5% Nay: 95 Other groups: Pro: 35% Neutral: 16% Oppose: 49 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q5_10 Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should not join the Cabinet but play their own role as the Second House / Members of the House of Councillors who belong to the ruling party should also join the Cabinet and actively support the administration
This group: Yea: 2% Neutral: 10% Nay: 88 Other groups: Yea: 10% Neutral: 45% Nay: 45 More opposition than any other cluster.
Reform Restraint and Economic Liberalism Faction This group is strongly opposed to securing jobs through public works projects, protecting domestic industry, and raising corporate tax rates, and is characterized by its emphasis on economic freedom and less government intervention in the market. They also oppose the right of permanent foreign residents to participate in local government and the unique role of ruling party members of the House of Councillors, and tend to want to maintain the current political system and rights based on nationality.
C9: Higher education self-funded/traditional maintenance group
.
Q4_16 Higher education such as universities and vocational schools should be free
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 74% Neutral: 14% Oppose: 11 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_13 Taxation on people with high income and assets should be increased
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 7% Nay: 93 Other groups: Pro: 59% Neutral: 27% Oppose: 14 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_5 The three non-nuclear principles should be upheld
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 61% Neutral: 20% Disagree: 19 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_25 Marriage between men and women should be allowed by law.
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 3% Nay: 97 Other groups: Pro: 61% Neutral: 19% Negative: 20 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_17 Foreign workers should be brought in
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Yea: 45% Neutral: 31% Nay: 24 More opposition than any other cluster.
Higher education self-funded, tradition-maintaining group This group consistently opposes free higher education and stricter asset taxation, and supports the current fiscal regime while emphasizing self-responsibility. They also oppose adherence to the three non-nuclear principles, legal recognition of same-sex marriage, and acceptance of foreign workers, and are characterized by a strong commitment to maintaining traditional values.
C10: Fiscal conservatism and emphasis on traditional values
.
Q4_11 For the time being, fiscal spending should be restrained to stimulate the economy, rather than to restrain spending to restore public finances
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 17% Nay: 83 Other groups: Pro: 83% Neutral: 14% Negative: 3 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_26 âBetter understandingâ legislation on LGBT and other sexual minorities should be passed as soon as possible.
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 64% Neutral: 24% Oppose: 12 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_16 Higher education such as universities and vocational schools should be free
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Yea: 72% Neutral: 14% Nay: 14 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_13 Taxation on people with high income and assets should be increased
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Yea: 57% Neutral: 26% Nay: 17 More opposition than any other cluster.
Q4_25 Marriage between men and women should be allowed by law.
This group: Yea: 0% Neutral: 0% Nay: 100 Other groups: Pro: 59% Neutral: 18% Oppose: 22 More opposition than any other cluster.
Fiscal conservatism and emphasis on traditional values This group is characterized by its strong opposition to fiscal stimulus packages, free higher education, and increased taxation of the wealthy, and its emphasis on conservative fiscal management and self-responsibility. The group also opposes legislation to promote LGBT understanding and legal recognition of same-sex marriage, indicating a conservative position that emphasizes the maintenance of traditional values. They want to maintain the current system and are reluctant to make major social and economic changes.
relevance - Polis-like visualization of the 2022 House of Councillors election
work memo
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