There was a shortage of IT personnel, but I doubt there will still be a shortage five years from now.

from [/villagepump/who is educating the programmers?](https://scrapbox.io/villagepump/who is educating the programmers?)

• I wonder if there is/is a shortage of programmer talent in the IT industry.
  • I think you “did” but “wonder if there will still be a shortage five years from now.”
    • Because of/due to Github Copilot and ChatGPT.
    • Since AI can’t make a decision in any way (and that’s something that can’t be helped as long as it can’t be responsible), it seems like something that could increase the number of programmers we have by about 0.75 times…
      • Large companies can get by with that, but I wonder if small and medium-sized companies can get by with that.
      • Maintenance cost issues. It is possible that it is cheaper to use humans than to deploy high-end AI.
      • Come to think of it, I haven’t heard anything about the SDG aspects, but I wonder if they are ok with the environmental impact or something, or are they ignoring it because the benefits are too great?
    • AIはどうやっても決定打を打てないまでは同意
      • [Even if the number of programmers can be increased by a factor of 0.75 or so, that would mean that “there will be a shortage of IT personnel! then AI can cover the majority of the shortage.
      • 
        • Information Processing Promotion Division, Commerce and Information Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry PDF
      • 
        • Model project for fostering and securing human resources to promote innovation by IT ventures, etc.
        • PDF
      • Other changes to low-code and no-code and Mandatory Programming Education have been made based on the projected shortage of IT personnel, so at this crossroads, the feeling is, “There won’t be a shortage, will there?” I have a feeling that there is no shortage in the current section.
    • enough to increase the number of programmers by about 0.75”.
      • Personally, I think the effect of the enhancement could be stronger.
        • There is a big difference between “a task that is currently done by four people can be done by three people” and “a task that is currently done by 400 people can be done by 300 people.
        • When you need to organize a large team to deliver integrated results, the cost of human resource management and communication has been huge, so if the number of people is reduced, it will be more than just a constant doubling.
        • Smaller teams tend to estimate the economic value of headcount reductions less because this overhead due to team size is smaller.

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