Suppose you fill a lake with a glass of water. If you say the water level does not rise, you are wrong; if you say it does, you are foolish.”
‘I put a glass of water in the lake. Will the water rise?”
- I remember reading something about this, but I’m not sure what the original source was. I haven’t found it.
If you make it a two-party question, “Will it go up or will it not go up,” then logically one is right and one is wrong, so you assume it’s important to choose the right one.False choice between the two In real-world questions, however, often “it doesn’t make much difference which is the right answer”. In this case, there is no utility in knowing which is the correct answer.
2023-07-20
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I saw a discussion (fight) on Twitter about whether releasing tritium-containing water into the ocean would increase the level of contamination.
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https://www.meti.go.jp/earthquake/nuclear/hairo_osensui/shirou_alps/no4/
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If you ask whether the absolute amount of tritium in the ocean will increase, “it will.”
- So those in the “pollution levels will increase” camp consider the claims of those in the “pollution levels will not increase” camp to be bullshit.
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On the other hand, if we talk about whether the concentration of tritium increases, it increases only by a much smaller amount than the naturally occurring amount.
- This is what we refer to as “no increase in contamination.”
- The answer to the question, “It’s only increasing by a much smaller amount,” is countered with, “It’s increasing, isn’t it?”
- Within the margin of error
Descriptive link: If you fill a lake with a glass of water, will the surface of the water rise?
relevance - Parable of pouring sewage into wine - To paraphrase the parable, “A spoonful of wine in a barrel of dirty water is not close to wine, but it would be foolish to say that it is close to wine.
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