Once-in-a-century phenomena are not rare.

It’s not surprising that “a certain value is the highest level in the last 100 years” or “this is the first time in the last 100 years that this criterion has been met (that criterion was not mentioned in the last year)” happens every year. What has occurred only this year in the past 100 years could occur 100 times in the next 100 years.

The reason why these phenomena occur is because the phenomena we are interested in are not independent of the time axis.

Example of temperature https://twitter.com/umi_nakayama/status/1540968151797469184?s=21&t=aqNt2zAIzv4Xv5fSjtpbbQ With temperatures rising over time, each year will be the “highest level in the past 100 years,” and if we create an appropriate standard, we can find the “first event that has occurred in the past 100 years” (e.g., Two consecutive hot days in Tokyo, the first ever in June. June.)

• Blind Card Candidate

---

This page is auto-translated from /nishio/100年に一度の現象は稀ではない using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.