This is probably the easiest and truest explanation

NFT is lottery.

  • There are people who bought NFT and gained in price, True
    • There are people who bought lottery tickets and won, True.
  • Buy NFT and the majority of cases will not increase in value, True
    • Buying lottery tickets and most lotteries do not win, True
  • The expected value of lottery profits is negative, True
    • NFT’s expected gain in value is negative (in the long run) - zero-sum game, and the money that someone has put in is distributed, so the amount of money that someone has withdrawn is minus, True.
  • If you don’t buy a lottery ticket, you will never win the lottery, True
    • If you don’t buy NFTs, you don’t get a price gain on NFTs, True
  • Lottery issuers can profit with no risk, True
    • NFT issuers can profit with no risk, True

When I mentioned this to my wife, she pointed out that “NFT is a horse race” is closer to “NFT is a horse race” if we take into account the fact that people purchase the tickets for the purpose of “supporting their guesses”.


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