Moore’s Law for Everything Sam Altman 2021
- The following is a summary, lines with
and their children are my comments
- The rapid development of AI and its ability to think and learn is expected to bring about major changes in the social economy.
- Much power shifts from labor to capital.
- If public policy does not adapt, many people will be worse off
- To address this, we need to design a system that more equitably distributes wealth by taxing companies, land, and other assets.
- [[asset taxation]] <img src='https://scrapbox.io/api/pages/nishio/nishio/icon' alt='nishio.icon' height="19.5"/>
- This technological revolution is unstoppable.
- 1: This revolution will create tremendous wealth
- Once a sufficiently powerful AI becomes a "workforce," the price of the various types of labor that affect the cost of goods and services approaches zero.
- 2: Drastic policy changes are needed to distribute this wealth and allow more people to pursue the life they want
- 3: If these two things work, people's standard of living will be better than ever.
- Fundamental shift in policy is needed
- Not to address [current social or political issues,
- It must envision a radically different society [in the near future.
1:
- Technological progress is on an exponential curve, and the AI revolution will be the fourth major technological revolution after agriculture, industry, and computing.
- Progress over the next 100 years will far outstrip all progress since the invention of fire and the wheel.
2: [[Moore's Law]]
- There are two ways to improve people's standard of living: individuals can earn more money or lower prices.
- Wealth = purchasing power = how much you can get with the resources you have
- The best way to increase social wealth is to lower the cost of goods
- [[Moore's Law]] : doubles in performance for the same price about every two years.
- Other costs such as housing, health care, and education have risen markedly
- Labor is a cost.
- Robots that build, AI doctors, AI teachers
- Moore's Law is a utopia where the price of things halves every two years.
- Technology can make it happen.
3: [[Capitalism for all]].
- A stable economic system requires both [[growth]] and [inclusiveness
- Growth: (1)
- Many people want their lives to improve every year.
- Zero-sum world, democracy becomes confrontational, people try to take from each other
- Inclusiveness:.
- Everyone having a reasonable opportunity to obtain the resources they need to live the life they want = fairness
- Capitalism is a powerful engine of growth
- Rewards investing in assets that create value
- Investment generates technological benefits.
- Profit sharing → becomes an incentive system.
- Can lead to inequalities
- Traditional way to deal with inequality: progressive taxation
- Not doing so well.
- The future is going to be much, much worse.
- Because the proportion of value produced by humans will decrease.
- [[Let's tax capital, not labor.]]
- Distribute ownership and wealth directly to citizens
- Better ways to address inequality
- The following two sources of wealth will dominate
- 1) Companies, especially [[companies that utilize AI]].
- (2) Land with a fixed supply
- American Equity Fund [[American Equity]] [[American Equity Fund]].
- Taxes on land owned by businesses and individuals above a certain assessed value
- 2.5% of the company's market value is transferred as a stock transfer.
- Distribute to citizens over 18 years of age.
- All citizens receive more money from the Fund each year as long as the country continues to improve
- Government-funded industries face real pressures as more people choose their own services in a competitive marketplace
- Taxing taxation on shares would align incentives among businesses, investors, and citizens.
- As people's personal assets rise in tandem with the country's assets, they will have a literal stake in the success of their country.
- American political economist [[Henry George.]] proposed the idea of a [[land value tax]] in the late 1800s.
- Land increases in value due to the [[network effect]] of the work that society does around the land.
- The landowner did not do all the work.
- So it's fair to share that value with the society that did the work.
- [[property tax]] のこと<img src='https://scrapbox.io/api/pages/nishio/nishio/icon' alt='nishio.icon' height="19.5"/>
- The New Social Contract
- floor for everyone
- Underpinning all of them.
- ceiling for no one
- I won't hold anyone's head down.
- A shared belief that technology can and must create a virtuous cycle of social wealth
- A world where everyone benefits from capitalism as an owner.
- Focus on creating a "more good" (better) world, not a "less bad" one.
- "more good" would be better.
- "more good" is optimization to make the pie as large as possible
- "less bad" is to divide the pie as fairly as possible.
- Both can raise people's standard of living for once.
- Continued growth is only possible with MORE GOOD, where the pie gets bigger.
4: Implementation and Troubleshooting
- Taxes 2.5% of market value annually on companies above a certain amount and pays the fund in shares
- Tax 2.5% of the value of all private property, payable in dollars
- Wealth available as capital for American Equity Fund
- U.S. companies alone are worth about $50 trillion, measured by market capitalization
- Assume it will at least double in the next 10 years, as has been the average over the past 100 years.
- There is approximately $30 trillion worth of privately owned land in the U.S.
- Assuming approximately doubling in 10 years.
- This is somewhat faster than historical rates, but as the world begins to understand the shift caused by AI, the value of land, one of the few truly finite assets, should rise at a faster rate.
- Of course, the increased tax burden of holding land diminishes its value relative to other investment assets
- In 10 years, each of America's 250 million adults will have about $13,500 annually
- Its real purchasing power goes up dramatically every year.
- Companies pay taxes each year by issuing new shares equal to 2.5% of the value of their stock
- We need to design a system that prevents people from consistently voting themselves more money. A constitutional amendment to establish allowable taxation would be a powerful safeguard. For example, taxes on businesses must be much smaller than the average growth rate of those businesses.
- If the popular vote goes to someone who says, "I'm going to raise the tax rate even higher to increase the distribution to everyone!" and the vote goes to those who are popular, the tax rate will rise to a level that hinders the growth of companies, so the Constitution prevents the tax rate from rising above a certain level.<img src='https://scrapbox.io/api/pages/nishio/nishio/icon' alt='nishio.icon' height="19.5"/>
- Also need a robust system to quantify the actual value of land
- Theoretically, the best system is one that taxes only the value of the land and not the improvements built on it.
- Ensure that future distributions from the fund cannot be borrowed or sold as collateral
- If you don't do this, you're a sucker for people who only think in the short term.<img src='https://scrapbox.io/api/pages/nishio/nishio/icon' alt='nishio.icon' height="19.5"/>
- It's like borrowing money from a consumer loan and playing pachinko, because people do things that are obviously a huge loss in the long run.
5: Migration to the new system
- With technology to create more wealth and policies to distribute it equitably, a great future is possible.
- During the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt was able to enact a huge social safety net that no one would have thought possible five years earlier. We are now in a similar moment.
- 1933[[New Deal policies]] のこと<img src='https://scrapbox.io/api/pages/nishio/nishio/icon' alt='nishio.icon' height="19.5"/>
- [New Deal policy - Wikipedia [https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%8B%E3%83%A5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%87%E3%82%A3%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%](https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%8B%E3%83%A5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%87%E3%82%A3%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%) 96]
- A politically feasible way to launch the American Equity Fund, and a way to lessen the shock of the transition period, is a bill that would gradually move to 2.5%.
- 2To ensure that the tax rate is 2.5% when GDP increases by 50% from the time the law is enacted.
- Starting with a small distribution can be motivating and help provide a sense of security for the new future.
- Sounds like it will take a long time to achieve 50% GDP growth.
- It took 13 years for the economy to grow 50% to 2019 levels
- But with AI, growth will be extremely rapid.
The changes that are about to take place are unstoppable.
- If we embrace it and plan for it,
- We can create a fairer, happier, and more prosperous society.
Maybe [[tax collection in the form of shares]] instead of cash is because [[cash is weak capital]].
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