Majority believe civil war will break out in the U.S.

Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll®: Will the US have another civil war? Here is an article on the results of a poll of U.S. voters conducted by Zogby Analytics in January 2021. The main points are as follows

• 46% of voters believe there is a possibility of another civil war like the Civil War in the United States. On the other hand, 42% say it is unlikely.
• Younger generations tend to view the possibility of civil war as more likely, while those over 65 tend to think it is less likely.
• By party, there is no significant difference between Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, but all feel that a civil war is a possibility.
• Residents of large cities consider the possibility of civil war more likely than residents of suburban areas.
• By race, Hispanics and African Americans are more likely than whites to feel the possibility of civil war.

The survey was conducted online with 873 respondents and has a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of ±3.3% points. The results of the survey show the increasing fragmentation of American society.

Is the US headed for another Civil War? | Brookings This article discusses the possibility of a Civil War-like civil war in the near future in the United States. The main points are as follows

• According to a Zogby Analytics poll, 46% of Americans believe that civil war is a possibility. Young people and residents of the South and Midwest are more likely to feel this possibility.
• There are a host of issues that create conflict, including race, gun control, abortion, and the legitimacy of elections.
• Society is increasingly divided and polarized by ideology, race, and education.
• The political climate has become one of “winner-take-all” with no room for compromise, and there is a growing tendency to distrust the other side.
• A large number of firearms are spread among the population, and militia organizations with radical ideology are active in various parts of the country.

At the same time, however, the report predicts that the country will not experience an all-out civil war because it is not divided geographically or institutionally as was the case during the Civil War and has a history of resolving conflicts through elections. However, there is a risk of instability due to an increase in domestic terrorism and armed conflicts, and the report stresses the need for action to protect democracy.

Is the US on the brink of a new civil war - CNN.co.uk This article discusses concerns that the United States may be on the brink of a new civil war. The main points are as follows

• In a recent poll, 46% of Americans believe a civil war is likely. Former President Trump also warned of “chaos” if he were arrested.
• Political extremism, polarization, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the proliferation of firearms have increased the risk of civil war. Some experts argue that civil war is inevitable.
• One-quarter to 40% of Americans believe that the use of violence against the government can be justified. - 4 of Americans believe the use of violence against the government can be justified.
• Civilians own nearly 400 million guns, and far-right extremists want a civil war.
• Even if it does not lead to an all-out civil war, widespread political violence and terrorism could occur and the stability of the country could be lost.
• The threat of far-right terrorism, such as the “January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol,” continues.

The article points out the fragmentation of American society and the risk of political violence, but suggests that an all-out civil war is unlikely. However, it warns that concerns about a crisis of democracy due to the spread of political violence cannot be ruled out.

Why “civil war” could break out in the U.S. in 2024: The unhealed resentment and hatred of those who have been “downgraded” | U.S. | Toyo Keizai Online

The unprecedented attack on Congress in January 2021 by the “Q Anon” agitation that shocked the United States and the world. Depending on Trump’s announcement to run for the next presidential election, will he invite such a situation again? And will he invite a second “Civil War”? “Is the U.S. headed for civil war?” by Barbara F. Walter, a leading U.S. political scientist who has read and warned about the current situation and causes of the rapid increase in “civil wars” around the world and the growing potential for civil war to break out in the United States. Yasushi Isaka, translator of the book, introduces the key points of the book. This article is a commentary by translator Yasushi Isaka on the contents of “Is America Headed for Civil War?” by Barbara F. Walter. The main points are as follows

• The United States is becoming increasingly divided and polarized in society, and a civil war could break out in 2024. Depending on the actions of former President Trump, it could lead to a second “Civil War.
• There are certain patterns to civil wars, and the signs can be known in advance. Indicators of “anocracy” (between tyrannical rule and democracy) and “downgrades” in which certain classes lose their status are risk factors.
• The evolution toward civil war has been very rapid in recent years, and the proliferation of social networking sites has allowed extremists to enter the political arena in just a few years. The “instigators” of civil wars can be not only politicians, but people from all walks of life.
• From the example of South Africa’s overcoming apartheid, the formation of a new state in which the ruling class and opposition forces work together could be an ideal model for avoiding civil war.
• It will take steady work to rebuild democracy, but there is no other way. We cannot start the world with a blank slate.

The author sharply points out the crisis of fragmentation in American society, but also suggests hope for rebuilding democracy. He also suggests restrictions on social networking sites that allow the rise of extremists.

Why the U.S. is on the eve of a “second Civil War”: “Anocracy Zones” that increase the risk of civil war | America | Toyo Keizai Online This article is a commentary by thinker Tatsuru Uchida on the contents of “Is America Headed for Civil War?” by Barbara F. Walter. The main points are as follows

• The January 2021 attack on Congress deeply undermined American citizens’ faith in the “rule of law.” It is unprecedented for a sitting president to incite armed citizens.
• On the Polity Index, which measures the level of democracy in each country, the United States fell into the “anocracy” (semi-democracy) zone in 2021. This state increases the risk of civil war.
• The civil war is started by a group that feels “downgraded” in political status. Some whites are becoming increasingly concerned about the rise of non-whites.
• Their sense of victimhood is at an illusory level and cannot be filled with concrete policies. It is the “narratives of division” that drive those inclined toward civil war.
• The U.S. needs a “reconciliation narrative” to get through this crisis, but it is unclear what that will look like. We can only hope for the “resilience” of the US.
• Civil war could be avoided, but if not, the U.S. will lose its hegemonic status. Japan needs to prepare for that shock.

While pointing out the deep-rooted divisions in American society, Mr. Uchida has high hopes for America’s resilience in overcoming past crises. However, he also suggests the possibility of a decline in the U.S. and urges Japan to be prepared.

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