I don't think there is any basis for confidence.

from [/villagepump/I guess there is no basis for confidence](https://scrapbox.io/villagepump/I guess there is no basis for confidence).

• There is no such thing as basis in confidence (in oneself).
  • self-assurance とか confidence (in oneself) ってそもそも Unsubstantiated Impressions なのでは
  • Implicit in the phrase “Unsubstantiated Confidence.” is the feeling that “you must have a basis for yourself” and “you who have no basis for yourself must not be confident.”
  • But even if someone thinks they have “grounded confidence,” that “grounding” doesn’t logically lead to “so I should be confident.”
  • that I associate with Humean scepticism.
    • Even causality is iffy, much less confidence.
    • Isn’t it funny that you think you need evidence? I mean.
    • The connection was made after the fact.
  • The basis for this is considered to betrack record のことが多い？
    • Just because something has worked in the past doesn’t mean it will work the next time.
      • I just wanted to say this.
    • But I think the odds are that someone with a proven track record will do better.
      • +1
    • Probability is that a person who acts confidently in the same capacity is more likely than a person who acts less confidently…
      • Probability of success is likely to be high with respect to tasks that are affected by human evaluation
      • (I thought that the probability of a bug is the same even if you write a program with full confidence, so I limited it to “evaluation by humans.)
      • I guess we shouldn’t look too much at attitude when evaluating people.
        • I’m getting dragged along, though.
        • Are we supposed to say that we should just look at the portfolio and make a decision?
          • If the goal is to look at culture fit or something, you need to look at attitude.
    • Is there anything to be gained by acting unsure?
      • Moderate confidence? - overconfident There’s also the word
        • Expected value control ？

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