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What happens to guerrilla warfare in a world where the boundary is not a clear step function, not flat, but a smooth sigmoid
Guerrilla warfare is a tactic that skillfully exploits unclear boundaries. In a sigmoidal worldview, the gray zone can be expanded to the advantage of the guerrilla fighter.
- The distinction between friend and foe will be blurred, and guerrilla forces will be more likely to blend in with the civilian population. They will be able to blend in with the population without having to wear a clear military uniform.
- Ideological boundaries will also blur, which may increase the number of people who sympathize with the ideology espoused by the guerrilla forces. It may become easier to gather supporters.
- The distinction between combat and non-combat will also be harder to distinguish. In the gray zone where the distinction between peacetime and contingency is unclear, guerrilla-like tactics will be easier to use.
- On the other hand, there is a risk of weakening the centripetal force of guerrilla forces. They may be less likely to share a clear sense of purpose and may be more prone to internal divisions.
- The counter-guerrilla fighters may also adopt sigmoidal tactics. For example, psychological operations may be used to further blur the boundaries between guerrilla forces and civilians.
In general, in a sigmoidal world, both the advantages and disadvantages of guerrilla warfare are likely to be magnified. Guerrilla warfare may become even more complex and unpredictable because of its ambiguity. There will be a risk of protracted and muddled situations, as clear winners, losers, and endings will be harder to see. At the same time, there will be more opportunities to take advantage of gray areas.
Guerrilla warfare as a metaphor, not physical combat, is discussed with the assumption that the reader is an employee of one company.
In the context of a company, the guerrilla warfare metaphor can be said to refer to tactics that are agile and not bound by existing organizational structures or conventions.
- Flexible teaming of projects across internal vertical organization boundaries. The blurring of the boundaries between departments will encourage a more active exchange of ideas.
- Gather and disseminate information through informal networks rather than through official internal channels. Flat communication will make it easier to generate innovative ideas.
- Instead of making big plans, repeat small experiments quickly. Trial and error without fear of failure, and adapt to change.
- Incorporate a joint creation approach beyond customer boundaries. Involving user communities and leveraging open innovation may create new value.
- Build cooperative relationships with diverse stakeholders outside the company to form an ecosystem. Collaboration beyond corporate boundaries has the potential to create greater impact.
However, there are risks associated with a guerrilla approach. There is a risk of losing alignment with the overall strategy or falling into partial optimization. It may also undermine the sense of unity of the organization and lead to a state of disorder.
In a sigmoidal world, such guerrilla approaches will become more important, but also more risky. Leadership and vision are required to embrace ambiguity while not losing sight of strategic direction. It will also be necessary to encourage autonomous action, while at the same time appropriate control will be necessary.
Each person working in a company must have adaptability to change and flexibility to accept diversity. At the same time, a sense of balance that does not lose sight of overall optimization will also be important. It could be said that these guerrilla-like skills and mindset are the key to surviving in the age of sigmoid.
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