2018-09-16 Title is tentative. I have faith in my fortune. Close to (religious) faith as it is believed without evidence.
- There are two kinds of luck.
- Luckily, it always turns out as expected.
- Good luck that it always works out. The former is infantile dementia universalis. If youāre properly aware of the outside world, it will soon be gone. The latter always perceive things as āgoing wellā even when things donāt go as expected.
- Edison.
- Konosuke Matsushita I have never failed.ā Even when things donāt go as expected, āit is what it is supposed to be.ā I donāt consider myself to have incurred unnecessary costs due to bad luck. Always recognize that you āgot itā. Not living up to expectations is a learning experience. Action is strongly encouraged because the result of action is always āgot In reality, there may be costs incurred for no good reason due to bad luck, but a cognitive distortion that does not recognize so, a kind of just world hypothesis.
2024-08-26
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The āitāll work outā part reminded me of āStockdaleās Paradox.
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I donāt consider myself to have incurred unnecessary costs due to bad luck.
- I see it as a positive thing, āan opportunity for growth.ā
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In other words, when you randomly get positive and negative results with equal probability, even though scientifically the expected value is zero, if some of the negative ones turn positive due to cognitive distortion or non linear evaluation axes, then subjectively it becomes āpositive on averageā.
- A casual expression of this would be āI am lucky.ā
- Scientifically, this is true even if the expected value is zero, but in practice, perhaps due to āhuman cognitive distortions that cause us to see the negative side of uncertainty as greater when there is uncertainty,ā the estimated return on uncertain actions is irrationally negatively skewed, so that competitive resources are left there a lot more than if people behaved rationally. left out there a lot more than if they had behaved rationally.
- As a result, those with cognitive distortions that make the negative appear positive can obtain at a lower cost the resources left untouched by the majority with cognitive distortions that make the negative appear large
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