FACTFULNESS

• FACTFULNESS 10 overcoming assumptions and the habit of seeing the world correctly based on data
• Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think
• Amazon

When given 12 three-question quizzes about the current state of the world, the average number of correct answers was two, even though four of the questions should have been correct even if chosen at random. The author initially thought this was a phenomenon of “a lack of Knowledge Update” (p.18), but it is not an update problem because even Davos participants, who are supposed to be acquiring new knowledge, make mistakes as well. It is caused by “an overly dramatic way of looking at the world.”

• Chapter 1 split instinct “The world is divided.
  • You assume there is a division between “developed and developing countries,” but as of 2017 there is no such thing Figure on p. 37
  • In the language I use False dichotomy False dichotomy corresponds to
  • Three points to note - Comparison of averages - Comparison of extreme numbers - View from the top
• Chapter 2 NEGATIVE INSTINCT Assumption that “the world is getting worse and worse”
  • There is no buzz when there is gradual improvement.
  • It’s a topic of conversation when there is a sharp decline.
  • Figure on p. 85
  • Three Factors
    • Vague memories of the past
    • biased reporting
    • Air of difficulty in saying “it’s getting better” when it’s bad.
  • The words “bad” and “getting better” go hand in hand.
• Chapter 3 linear instinct Assumption that “the world’s population will just keep growing
  • Low abstraction.
  • Tendency to erroneously assume that the pace of recent change will be maintained.
    • In short, linear approximation.
    • You would think the graph is straight.
  • Know that the shape of a graph is not just a straight line.
    • straight line
      • S curve
    • (playground) slide
    • kombu (any kelp of genus Laminaria)
    • double
• Chapter 4 fear instinct Assumptions that cause us to think of “frightening” things that are not actually dangerous.
  • The easiest way to get other people’s attention is to incite fear.
  • 40 million planes have landed without incident, but only 10 fatal accidents make the news.
• Chapter 5 overestimation instinct Assumption that “the number in front of you is the most important
  • Trying to determine the size of a single number and making a mistake.
    • Don’t judge by one number, compare.
    • 4.2 million babies died in 2016.
    • I feel like this is big.
    • It actually went from 4.5 million to 4.4 million to 4.2 million over three years.
  • To overestimate the case in front of you.
    • 80-20 rule
    • When things are enumerated, consider the possibility that 20% of them could account for 80% of the total.
  • Discussing per capita emissions rather than comparing the CO2 emissions of entire countries.
• Chapter 6 patterning instinct Assumption that “everything fits in one example
  • Differences within the same group, commonalities between different groups
    • The way of life is more influenced by income level than by culture or religion
    • https://www.gapminder.org/dollar-street/matrix
  • Majority: most or just a little over half?
  • Exception: do not draw conclusions for the entire group based on a few examples
  • Don’t think you are normal.
  • Do not apply the example of one group to another
    • Higher survival rates for prone soldiers encouraged infants to sleep on their stomachs, leading to an increase in sudden infant deaths
• Chapter 7 INSTINCT OF FATE Assumption that “everything is predetermined
• Chapter 8 SIMPLIFICATION INSTINCT Assumption that “the world can be understood in one way”
  • Think about the weaknesses of the ideas you are putting on your shoulders.
• Chapter 9 instinct to look for the culprit Assumption that “blaming someone else will solve things
  • Tends to be attributed to one hero when things go well
    • Thanks to social infrastructure and technology
• Chapter 10 impatience instinct “If we don’t do something now, we will be in trouble.
  • Fast thinking in a hurry fast and slow.

https://twitter.com/hyuki/status/1081848645970870273

• When we see a “division”, let’s look up “distribution”. When we see a dichotomy, let’s examine “are those the only two things in the world?“. - False dichotomy

• When you see “negative news,” remember that “bad news is more likely to spread. More bad news does not necessarily mean more bad events.”(while reading “Factfulness,” Chapter 2)

• “Let’s not adapt (e.g., of a poem or novel) a straight line graph of anything” (while reading Factfulness, Chapter 3).

  • This “linear instinct” also,

  • “Divisive Instincts.”

  • “Negative Instincts.”

  • I’m also closely intertwined with…

• We naturally look at things that are frightening, but there is a difference between fear and danger. (While reading Chapter 4 of Factfulness.)

• Let’s be vigilant when only one number comes up. Let’s compare it to another number or ask for a percentage. (While reading Chapter 5 of Factfulness.)

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