Difference in resolution between near and far goals

• The more distant the target, the greater the range.

• even if of the typhoon’s projected path.

  • I’ve drawn a circle for clarity, but the situation at a certain point in time would be a line segment orthogonal to the time axis in this diagram.

• The more distant the future is forecasted, the more uncertain it becomes.

• Trying to predict the distant future with the same resolution as the near future requires a higher degree of accuracy.

  • If that were possible, we’d be able to predict the near future more accurately in the first place.
  • Achilles and the tortoise
  • 

• The further away you go, the more likely you are to encounter unexpected obstacles.

• Even if you force yourself to set detailed goals, you will encounter unexpected obstacles and need to change course.

  • A change of policy is not a bad thing, so go ahead and do it.
    • But people feel a lot of pain when their plans are disrupted.
    • So you shouldn’t decide on so many details in the first place.

• Predicting the near future with the same resolution as the far future is too rough.

  • 
  • So I sometimes get feedback to be more detailed.

The result is a Feedback in both directions of “more detail” and “less detail

• Same composition as the figure of moderation
• 
• Feel like you’re getting conflicting instructions and are confused
• Or, instead of a directive to “make it more vague” for a goal that is too detailed and far in the future, the feedback is, “Is that really going to happen?” but rather “Is it really going to happen?
  • At this point, the main problem is to gather and detail information in an attempt to show that this is really the case.

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