ML2310_2354 I’m starting to think that the cause of Japan’s low growth is that when you take capitalism to the extreme, the big powers - the US, EU, and China - have the upper hand, and smaller Japan is at a disadvantage. I’m starting to think that if you push capitalism to its limits, the big powers like the U.S., EU, and China will be at an advantage, and smaller Japan at a disadvantage. ML2310_2354 In more leftist terms, after the end of colonialism, imperialist powers have no choice but to seize the lower strata of the population within their own countries. The bigger the power, the bigger the lower class, the easier it is to expropriate them.

BoufrawFrodo2 The cause of low growth is obvious: the population is not growing. The U.S., China and the EU productive population are increasing, while Japan’s is rather decreasing. This is the cause. Based on demographics, China will enter a period of decline in the next few years. BoufrawFrodo2 If the population does not increase, or rather decreases, it means that domestic demand will decrease, and if exports do not grow enough to compensate, growth is impossible. If exports do not grow enough to compensate for this, growth will not be possible.

nishio The business that has been established only by domestic demand due to moderately large domestic demand is gradually becoming unviable due to the decrease in domestic demand, and people with mental models who think they can succeed in the past need to change their mental models. However, it takes a change in mental models to take on new challenges instead of maintaining the status quo, and people with mental models who think they can succeed by doing things the way they have in the past are getting in the way.

BoufrawFrodo2 However, as domestic demand decreases, the question of who will consume is still a problem. The only options are to develop high value-added industries that can be exported abroad, or to make money through “tourism,” which is the selling off of daily life.

relevance - The problem is that Japan was halfway big.


This page is auto-translated from /nishio/内需の減少 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.