Better off investing in a new S-curve.

2018-06-17

• For subjects where the investment-return relationship is S-curve.

• Early on, investing in it looks like a loss.

  • However, as you continue to invest, the return on investment will increase, making your investment more profitable.

• The problem is that after this

• Slowly diminishing return on investment will eventually make the investment a loss again.

• But at that point, compared to the other yet-to-be-invested S-curves, it still looks more profitable to invest in this curve.

• This is how they keep investing in the old S-curve.

• But in the long run, it is actually more profitable to invest in a new S-curve

• Refined version of Better off investing in new curves. from 4 years ago

• Still not sure about whether investment in knowledge follows an S-curve

  • used to naively think that it was exponential, but it is more consistent with many things to think of it as an S-curve
    • Principle that the learning curve is an S-curve
    • S-shaped utility of knowledge in a winner-take-all environment
    • Serial Specialist concept

Addendum 2024.

• relevance - comfort zone - Trade-offs between use and exploration

---

This page is auto-translated from /nishio/新しいS字曲線に投資した方が得 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.