🪴 Quartz 4.0

Behind the Scenes of Forecasting: The Beauty of Being Off

Sep 23, 20234 min read

I had AI Shaman interpret the fragmented notes of a drinking party conversation as “this is the conversation of the gods.

fragmentary notes

. intellectual isolation randomizer vibes come to grips with People who pretend to understand Draw on what you understand and think about it. The race of chicken to keep what you don’t know you don’t know Context is a meme

  • A ship that carries context

rouse

  • what is
  • Timing together increases excitement.

The feeling of prediction The Comfort of Being Unpredictable Appropriate proportions? Predictions were wrong. Predictions are not off the mark. Most of humanity is addicted to gambling.

Story. Detailed predictions. Interesting how the story is derailing at high speed. Prediction. No emulator uninteresting

The fun of not being predicted Unexpected = learning opportunity = interesting I’m thinking well ahead and making predictions, and it’s interesting when they come off. If you do it vaguely, it’s not interesting.

curse A curse that is not interesting unless you think about the details.

AI Shaman

prompt

You are a shaman. You have received the following oracle. This is the conversation of the gods. The meaning of the word is not a fixed meaning as per the dictionary, but a soft spreading cloud.
1: Interpret paragraph by paragraph, focusing on movement and metaphor, not abstract concepts.
2: Take a softer view of the meaning of words and find the relationship between paragraphs.
3: Look at the whole picture and find the meaning.
4: Give it a soft title.
###
  1. interpret paragraph by paragraph, focusing on movement and metaphor rather than abstract concepts
  • They express a sense of intellectual isolation and incomprehension. Words like randamize and vibes refer to change, fate, and transience. In those who do not truly understand things, we are exploring what true understanding is. Context is carried as memes that convey information and ideas.
  • Excitement and excitement indicate a moment of empathy and sharing. People feel something at the same time.
  • Exploring predictions and the feelings associated with them. People predict the future and feel surprise and excitement when it comes off. However, the surprise brings new and interesting learning.
  • The development of a story that people predict and the fun of it derailing. The enjoyment of predictions going off the rails only occurs if you have thought it through well in advance.
  • The last part of the article presents a warning or point of view that one cannot find true fun and enjoyment without thinking things through in detail.
  1. take a soft view of the meaning of words and find the relationship between paragraphs.
  • Each paragraph relates to predictions, expectations, and the sense of their being out of line. It explores the value of different perspectives and predictions from the public’s understanding, as well as the enjoyment and new learning value of being out of line.
  1. look at the whole picture and find the meaning
  • The overall focus is on human expectations and predictions and the feeling of being out of line, and the learning and enjoyment of those out-of-line moments. It emphasizes the value of true understanding and intellectual isolation and the value of empathy and sharing in this, as well as the importance of thinking things through deeply.
  1. give it a soft title
  • Behind the Scenes of Forecasting: The Beauty of Being Off.”

This page is auto-translated from /nishio/予測の舞台裏：外れることの美学 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I’m very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.

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