from Experiments to make GPT4 compensate for context Assumption quantity and decision making
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Decision makers in the capital market and public sphere are exposed to high uncertainty and are often not given time to reduce uncertainty. Therefore, they often use large and small “assumption” to speculate to get out of a difficult situation or to realize future value.
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- the fewer or smaller the assumptions, the more accurately and unobtrusively successful the practical activities to realize future value can be. Skilled practitioners will tend to have less cost for this inference.
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- on the other hand, capital markets, organizational logic, and public opinion sometimes value (expect) the vision of bold decision makers, even if their experience is minimal and their assumption is rough. This is sometimes affirmed as “visionary” and “appropriate risk-taking,” and sometimes it is “a performance for the money-makers, embellished with staged falsehoods and misrepresentations that experts snicker at. And since water flows low in many cases, the latter (dreaming with no consideration of feasibility) becomes the majority, and those who watch and learn from it naturally imitate it.
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- So, while acknowledging that the risk-taking that arouses those expectations in capital markets is an important surplus (inefficiency) to keep the economy circulating, he suggested the normative value of not getting oneself caught up in that structure and being true to the basic fundamentals. https://twitter.com/shogochiai/status/1677985261316362245
relevance
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