A system with a delay

• When you see y increase right after x increases, many people interpret it as “as x increases, y increases”.
• But in reality, that often doesn’t happen.
• It’s a system where “as x increases, y decreases, but there’s a delay in that change.”
• Humans have difficulty recognizing this delay.

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• context
  • A state of emergency was declared due to the spread of COVID19 infection.

    • I strongly urge you to refrain from leaving your homes during the month of April 7 to May 6.

  • Number of suicides in April, down about 20% from the previous year
    • https://news.tbs.co.jp/newseye/tbs_newseye3977832.html
  • From this observation, we observed a case that was interpreted as “if you curb going out, suicide will decrease.”
  • That interpretation is a leap, an interpretation that overlooks the delay.
    • stress reaction is a delayed process, so the stress reaction of curtailing the outing has not yet occurred.

relevance - system prototype - blind spot - delay

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